How Voters Feel About Economy Plays Key Role in Presidential Choice
New polling from Marquette University shows that Wisconsinites still suffering the effects of the recession favor Romney over Obama.
If the presidential election were held today, President Barack Obama would win in Wisconsin over Republican Mitt Romney by about 8 percentage points — 51 to 43 percent.
But a closer look into the numbers revealed Wednesday in a new poll from Marquette University Law School shows a distinct divide among voters and whom they support when that question is linked to how they see the economy.
It boils down to this:
Survey respondents who said the recession really hasn't taken a toll on their personal finances back Obama, while Romney has an edge over those still hurting from the economic turn-down.
Obama beats Romney by 51 percent to 44 percent among respondents who say they were affected by the recession but have now recovered. And among those who say the recession hasn't really hurt them back Obama by 54 percent to 40 percent.
For those who were affected and have not recovered, Romney is their candidate by a small margin, 48 percent to 45 percent.
The poll results were released as part of the school's monthly "On the Issues" program with broadcaster Mike Gousha and Professor Charles Franklin. A sample of 810 likely voters were reached via land line and cell phone to answer questions between July 5 and 8. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.
RELATED: MU Poll Shows Hovde Narrowing the Gap in Senate Primary Race
"There is a very personal aspect for those who have suffered because of the recession and have not gotten any gains," noted Franklin, director of the poll. "They are fertile ground for the Romney campaign."
Views on the country's economic recovery also make a difference in how Wisconsin voters might lean come November. Those who think the economy is better than a year ago support Obama over Romney 77 percent to 15 percent. Those who think things will be better a year from now back the president by a 66 percent to 28 percent margin.
Likely voters more in the middle who see the economy as the same now and in the next year also support the president by double-digit margins.
But for those who think the economy is worse or expect it to get worse in the next year, Romney is their choice — 72 percent to 24 percent, and 71 percent to 22 percent respectively.
"Is it unusual to see President Obama leading in the state when so many think the economy is worse?" Gousha asked.
Yes and no, Franklin answered.
"It depends on how you do the math," he said. "Looking at it one way is that 64 percent of voters say the economy is better or the same. Or you can look at it as 75 percent say the economy is the same or worse."
Voter income levels are also tied to which candidate survey participants support.
Romney wins over Obama — 49 percent to 46 percent — with voters who make over $75,000 a year. Those in the bottom and middle third income levels support Obama over Romney, 61 to 33 and 52 to 45 percent, respectively.
"Income is related to Republican votes and that shows up in our polls as well," Franklin said.
Mike Knight
10:25 am on Thursday, July 12, 2012
There must be a lot of clueless morons in Wisconsin if so many would still vote for Barry Obama. They clearly haven't been personally effected in a negative way, and don't pay attention to the news. Especially alternative news outside the mainstream propaganda. Barry is a globalist corporatist who works for the multinational mega corporations, and banks. He's given us the TSA, the ever growing police state, many wars, and a pile of lies in his 2008 campaign. He'll be telling more lies to get himself re-elected. Barry fancies himself a King outside the rule of Congress, and law. He refuses to enforce immigration law, and illegals continue to flow into our nation. This guy makes Jimmy Carter look like a harmless genius. I would gladly vote for Jimmy if he was my only other choice besides Barry Nixon and his "executive privilege.
$$andSense
9:40 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
Unfortunately Mike, this goes way back to the Patriot Act under the second Bush, the war on drugs and expansion of police powers under Reagan and Bush the first, and the global bankers that hoodwinked Woodrow Wilson with the Fed Reserve. Yes, not just Wisconsin, but a nation of morons that think voting "conservative" or "liberal, if they even vote at all, think the system is going to change based on a vote. Love him or hate him, Ron Paul is one of the few last vestiges of what could change this country. I don't support violence but it would seem that bullets and neighbor versus neighbor is the option that is drawing close fast. Where is Doofa and Dumshtsky weighing in on this? GenXers without a clue, that's where. Silence says it all.
Bam Bam Ruble
10:55 am on Thursday, July 12, 2012
Yo da entire Democrat party wif da thousands o' union goons/stooges an' thugs voted in dis here Kenyan clown. Walker's victory certainly be uh bright point what 'chew trippin foo'
James R Hoffa
12:34 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
The nationalization of banks by the Japanese government led to a decade long recession in that county.
The re-election of Barack Obama will lead to a decade long stagnation if not another recession in this county!
Romney represents our only hope!
St. Swithin
1:07 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
Hoffa, what are you talking about. The last time I checked the banks in Japan are all still private. Perhaps you are thinking of the postal system?
morninmist
2:07 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
Mitt better quit the LIES!
Ray Lawson @Lawsonbulk
LMAO: Harry Reid: Mitt Romney couldn't be confirmed as Dog Catcher by the Senate. http://read.bi/NoKgA6
Keith Schmitz
2:19 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
Do you have any idea what Willard is going to do, except enrich himself and the rest of the wealthy? If you do, let him know since he has no idea.
James R Hoffa
2:38 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
@Swithin -
Apparently, you don't know your financial/economic history very well. Google 'japanese banking crisis' and start learning!
@morninmist & Schmitzy -
So you both became super poor under Reagan and the Bush's tenure in the White House and were only able to climb back into the middle class under Clinton and Obama's tenure, eh? Why is your ability to be successful in life so dependent upon the Democratic Party?
St. Swithin
2:57 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
Sorry Hoffa. You aren't accurate on Japanese banks or the cause of their recession. The only bank I can find that was nationalized was LTCB. That was because it was totally insolvent and no other bank would buy it. You have put the cart before the horse. The crash of the Japanese banks was caused by a crash of a credit/housing bubble. The crash brought on a recession while the government struggled to bailout the banks and rescue the economy. Does this sound familiar?
Here's what Bloomberg http://tiny.cc/a1mchw says about it:
"The main lesson from 1990s Japan: A bailout of banks is politically unpopular but ultimately necessary to save the economy"
James R Hoffa
3:12 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
@Swithin -
You don't consider a publicly funded bailout to be quasi-nationalization?
And the good people at Bloomberg are never wrong, are they?
St. Swithin
3:49 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
@Hoffa - so now it's 'quasi'? Well I consider a bailout to also be 'nationalizing' when the government steps in and replaces all the executives with new staff and these appointees start making critical decisions about the direction of the company. GM would be an example. When you just hand the banks taxpayer money and leave in charge the idiots who led the firm to disaster I just call that stupid. To me it shows that the bankers were pulling the strings and the pols just danced to the music. So why would I elect a banker as president? Just to complete the takeover?
James R Hoffa
3:53 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
@Swithin -
Who is running for President that is or was ever a banker?
morninmist
3:55 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
We should have followed Iceland when dealing with the crooks!!
Scrappy Badger @Badgers_RebeL
Iceland Hires Bounty Hunter to find renegade Bankers (We otta too) http://www.businessinsider.com/iceland-has-hired-an-ex-cop-bounty-hunter-to-go-after-the-bankers-that-wrecked-its-economy-2012-7?utm_source=twbutton&utm_medium=social&utm_campaign=international | #WiUnion #OccupyMn #OWS #Banqueros #Bankers #USA
James R Hoffa
4:03 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
@morninmist -
Why did the Democrats overwhelming support the bank bailouts if bankers are so evil? Democrats delivered their caucus on the vote twice. Republicans killed it the first time, and even then, a large part of the Republican caucus still voted against it the second time around, while the Democrats once again delivered their caucus.
So, why do Democrats love and trust bankers so much?
Ima Hippee
7:07 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
Keith - how is this czar thing working out? I have nothing against the rich at heart or the rich at the bank. But to be appointed in order to be enriched? What will Obama do? Enrich himself at the expense of the middle class and appoint his czars.
Gues what? You are still out of the loop. You get nothing.
Keith Schmitz
3:11 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
What I love about you guys is it has to be personal, because your sphere of consciousness does not extent beyond your carcass.
I don't give a damned about my situation and neither should you. It's the aggregate that counts, and what has been happening under 30 years of Reaganomics has been the decline of America, with numbskulls like Rojo complaining that we don't talk about American exceptionalism.
Keith Schmitz
3:13 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
Ima, you are one person deluded with anger who does not know what you are talking about. Find another activity. You suck at commentating and you only draw pity.
CowDung
3:15 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
Sounds like a case of the pot and kettle again...
St. Swithin
1:13 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
At one level this is a duh! report. Of course people will be less favorable to a candidate they feel has hurt them. And most people aren't educated enough to understand the reasons behind the recession. Just remember, this recession started on George W. Bush's watch, and Romney has the same economic advisors.
superdavefive
2:13 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
At what point does a President take responsibility for the state of our country? I think at this point George W. Bush can be left out of it.
St. Swithin
2:43 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
@superdavefive - you have to be willfully clueless about recent history to make such a statement. The deficit that has Republicans in such a hissy is mainly the result of W's two wars, Medicare-D, tax cuts and stimulus spending - all done with no attempt to balance the budget. The main cause of the recession was the slow erosion of banking regulation from multiple administrations. Republican economic 'experts' under George W supported this deregulation and of course Romney also thinks they are a good idea. Obama is also too cozy with the investment bankers that wrecked the economy, but at least he isn't constantly apologizing for them. I can't vote for someone who pledges to run the economy the same way Bush did.
Greg
3:27 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
Have we had an attempt to ballance the budget under Obama? Have we had a budget?
superdavefive
4:06 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
@ St. Swithin - You failed to answer my question: At what point does a President take responsibility for the state of our country? Blaming a man or his political party doesn't solve anything. If you're not part of the solution...
St. Swithin
4:22 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
@superdavefive - you clearly asked the question to try to dump all the current economic problems on Obama. My answer to your question is that the president takes responsibility as soon as he takes office. That is not the same as taking the blame for conditions that existed on the day he took over. Obama for his part passed a stimulus package soon after his term began, which stopped the free-fall and started the economy back on the road to recovery. The topic here is basing your vote on the state of the economy. Even though Obama has not been a whopping success on the economy, neither has he driven it further into the ground. Romney, on the other hand, pledges to return to the failed policies of Bush. It would be nice if there was a third choice, but given the two it is clear which one I prefer.
Ima Hippee
7:10 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
St. Swithin - so with your logic, Clinton had nothing to do with the economy during his tenure.
Bren
3:34 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
George W. Bush was given a second term to prove that his policies worked and I believe that Barack Obama should be given the same opportunity. No one honestly and logically could believe that the damage caused by the Great Recession could be repaired in a single four-year term. Besides, I've heard more from Mitt Romney about women's reproductive issues and "Repeal and Replace (with what?)" than I have on actual economic recovery strategies based on precedents of success. Hiring the same folks who watched the U.S. economy slide off the cliff during the Bush administration? Confidence is not high in this methodology, nor is the "We'll do it right this time" meme of the GOP. Personally, until they push their strident, ignorant fringe (Tea/GOP) back into the shadows, the GOP (with few exceptions) has little to say to me.
Greg
3:59 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
So, "Go left or go home" is Brens moto.
Ima Hippee
7:09 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
Bren, good. Then go away.
Tosa720
1:00 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
History shows that spending increased most times a Republican was in the oval office. I am not a Libertarian, but apparently they agree: http://libertarianreview.us/2012/06/06/the-tea-party-republicans-spent-more-than-the-dems-they-replaced/ . There is much being said about President Obama's spending record - which has proven to be the lowest of every president: http://www.politifact.com/truth-o-meter/statements/2012/may/23/facebook-posts/viral-facebook-post-says-barack-obama-has-lowest-s/ The mess we were in when President Obama took over was the worst since the great depression, and he has done much to try to clean up this mess. I am trusting that he will continue to make progress if re-elected because he has a decent track record already, has solid plans, & has the interests of all Americans at heart. On the other hand, we see Romney - who has no plans to speak of, no track record to speak of, a history of lying &extreme flip-flopping on nearly every major issue, a compete disregard/ disdain for most Americans (workers,students, the elderly, the poor, and the sick and infirm). This is a man who puts his money offshore to avoid paying taxes, outsources American jobs, puts American companies out of business, derides minorities &the poor (criticizes those in poverty that he put out of work no less) and has shown that he lacks the character ðics to be president of this country. To choose him because he is republican or simply to "beat" a democrat is ludicrous.
Bren
1:11 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
Greg, moto as in movement (e.g. "andante con moto") or did you forget a "t?" ; )
Ima Hippee, I hope that you will always post here. Your understanding of political issues is profound and your insights invaluable to every discussion.
Greg
2:50 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
Typo.
James R Hoffa
3:42 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
Irregardless of what Republicans did in the past, current Republicans want a balanced budget, as proven by the multiple balanced budget bills passed by the House.
Funny how Obama can evolve his positions, but supposedly Republicans are forever stuck on repeating the mistakes of George W Bush.
Meanwhile, the Democrats and Obama haven't even attempted to balance the budget.
PLEASE!!!
Bren
1:15 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
Mr. Hoffa, we are to fall for the "This time we'll do it right!" meme once again?
The far right fringe of the Republican Party presents budgets which continue the same failed policies. Obstruction by this same fringe element keeps progress from being made in the government. That last Congressional vote on the Affordable Care Act--wasn't that the 32nd time they did that? Please explain these frivolous symbolic votes in the face of economic crisis and high unemployment.
Please, indeed.
Steve ®
3:56 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
mm mmm mm
hope and change
SkinnyDude
9:00 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
Obama the 1st president in history to run against capitalism. Sadly , the freeloaders in the entitlement class might vote like sheep for free stuff. But it isn't free as Greece found out . Than it is the sheep that squeel like pigs that the goose that lays the golden eggs has stop producing . If the takers out number the makers this country is sunk . Obama favors that as he believes in socialism . But history shows time and time again it simply doesnt work because it can not sustain itself . Furthermore If you take merit out of the system it kills all the things that makes America great. Who would want to come to the USA for a chance to be ordinary with no incentive to GET AHEAD. I mean if to the fruits of your labor absorbed by a wasteful governments central plan of failure for all. We have the biggest most innovative encomy in the world because it encourages people to think big and win big . Bill Gates won big. But the great part about capitalism is he made so many lives better because of it . The consumers , the investors , the internet , the world all benefit Of course hes got billions. So what has this greedy man done now? He invests in his foundation to find world cures . I mean these liberals need to get a grip . Capitalism is what made America GREAT.
$$andSense
10:51 pm on Thursday, July 12, 2012
Sacking the Federal Reserve System would be a damn good start but I don't see any voices for that. The banksters continue to rule. Suck it up, we are all screwed by the monetary power mongers with the full backing of the federal gov't. Wilson regretted signing the law into effect not long afterwards. Jefferson and Jackson hated bankers. The last two presidents that spoke against the system, JFK and Reagan, had assassinations leveled against them. (So did Jackson long before the FRS creation). One succeeded, the other failed. Coincidence? You decide. Three cheers for greed!
But as some Gen-X know-it-all "conservatives" on this site would maintain, I am a grumpy old "liberal". Yeaaahhhh...., that's it. LMAO when the day comes, and probably soon, that the paper in their wallets would better suffice for wiping their widdle behinds 'cause that’s all it will be worth.
mike paczesny
1:44 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
ron paul
Tosa720
1:58 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
Ron Paul - a racist and a man who would have all women barefoot & pregnant and without equal status or rights....
Vicki Bennett
2:40 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
A reference to a conservative Marquette poll again. How big was the sample? Did everyone answer the phone or did they just ignore it like most of us when we don't recognize the phone number? How big was the margin of error?
CowDung
2:51 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
Funny how nobody complained about or questioned the 'conservative' Marquette poll when they reported that Obama is favored by 8 percentage points over a republican challenger...
Greg
2:54 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
It's top secret, but i'll tell you if you promise to keep it secret.
A sample of 810 likely voters were reached via land line and cell phone to answer questions between July 5 and 8. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points.
Heather Asiyanbi
2:54 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
@Vicky - from the article above: "A sample of 810 likely voters were reached via land line and cell phone to answer questions between July 5 and 8. The margin of error is 3.5 percentage points."
A respondent by definition is someone who answered the phone and participated in the survey.
Greg
2:55 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
Heather you blabber mouth....
Heather Asiyanbi
3:10 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
@Greg - my fault! We must have been typing at the same time! ;)
CowDung
3:12 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
That's what is so nice about the Patch news sites--they read the news to those who can't (or won't) read it for themselves...
Tosa720
5:35 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
Comment on American Exceptional-ism - US is 45th in the world in education - More: Out of 34 countries assessed, U.S. ranked 14th in reading, 17th in science, 25th in math. More:163 countries guarantee paid leave for a woman after childbirth - the US does not (it is up to individual employers),45 guarantee pd leave for fathers when a child is born in the family. The US does not. 76 countries protect breast feeding at work, the US does not. 96 countries guarantee an annual leave or vacations - the US does not (it is up to individual employers). 139 countries guarantee short and long term sick leaves - again - US = no- it is up to employers. The US is 39th in early childhood educational enrollment and 91st in student staff ratios for our children and our school year is shorter than 54 other countries. We are clearly NOT the best educated or the most well-taken care of. American Exceptional-ism: We have that in our Military Budget.
Tosa720
5:36 pm on Friday, July 13, 2012
http://www.hsph.harvard.edu/globalworkingfamilies/images/report.pdf