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Political Changes over Next Decade Will Be Limited to Statewide Elections Due to Gerrymandering

Due to the unfettered gerrymandering of districts that the Republicans did behind closed doors, it is almost assured that the state GOP will continue to control the Legislature for the next 10 years.

Republicans made sure that as many Democrats were squeezed into as few districts as possible, leaving the majority of the districts as easy wins for Republicans.

In this past Nov. 6 election, the Republicans took control of both state houses with 200,000 fewer statewide votes than the Democrats received.

From Urban Milwaukee, online magazine, on Wednesday 11/21/2012:

"Republicans won 56 of the 76 contested Assembly seats in the Nov. 6 election. That’s 74 percent of the seats — which they won with just 52 percent of the 2.2 million votes.

The Democratic Party of Wisconsin furnished the Center with data showing that if uncontested races were included in the analysis, Democrats actually received 200,000 more Assembly votes than Republicans. Most uncontested races were in Democratic districts."

“There is no question — none — that the recent redistricting effort distorted the vote,” said Ken Mayer, a professor of political science at the University of Wisconsin-Madison. “Nobody takes seriously the notion that the legislative plan for congressional districts wasn’t politically motivated.”

--

What does this mean for Wisconsin voters and government?

First of all, since all foreseeable Legislative races for the next 10 years are virtually assured of having Republicans controlling both houses, the only way for Democrats to have any input is to concentrate on statewide races, which are decided by the total popular vote.

Statewide races include among others, governor, state attorney general, Supreme Court justices, and both U.S. Senate seats.

Unfortunately, even if the Democrats are successful in electing Democrats as governor, if the Republicans follow their federal strategy of obstructionism and non-compromise, as they have with President Obama, gridlock may become the Wisconsin government status quo.

Luke

6:25 am on Monday, November 26, 2012

There are a couple of fallacies in David's analysis.

First of all, there is no control group mentioned. The fact is that Republicans ALREADY held the majority of Assembly seats under the old districts. Simply saying that there are more Dem votes than Republican votes elsewhere in the state makes no sense, because the Assembly seats are not voted upon statewide. If we use the old districts as a control group, we STILL have Republicans winning the majority of the seats, regardless of the absolute number of votes within either party across the state.

Secondly, if the Dems had been in control, they would have changed the districts too. Then David wouldn't be complaining.

But if David is going to complain, he should at least have a point of reference other than absolute number of votes from either party, statewide, since seats are not voted upon statewide. In fact, the number of votes outside any given district is just as relevant to the election in that district as the number of communists in any given city in Canada.

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Brian Dey

7:09 am on Monday, November 26, 2012

David- Why don't you point out that it is obvious why Democrats received 200,000 votes more? It has little to do with redistricting but rather the large Democratic turnout in the most populous, urban areas like Milwaukee and Madison, which could alone could account for the difference. That number means nothing as the elctions pertain only to the districts.

Gerrymandering has been in practice in the U.S. since the Democrats used it in Mass. in 1812. Both parties have used it, and it has withstood every court battle since 1812 throughout the country. In Wisconsin, it hasn't happened very often where on party controls both chambers and the Governorship. However, in 2002, the map was drawn by 3-member judicial panel made up of judges widely supported by the Democrats and the map reflected a Democrat gerrymandering, to the point of districts being drawn with non-contiguous boundaries.

Dave, remember the words of your President, "Elections have consequences."

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GearHead

7:18 am on Monday, November 26, 2012

The gentleman doth protest too much methinks.

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Greg

11:57 am on Monday, November 26, 2012

As always with the extreme left, it's the Republicans fault. Every liberal blogger on this site has the same problem, they have no ability to look inward. For the past 2 years the state Democrats have had the singular direction of turning the state upside-down to support a small fraction of the electorate (<credit Lyle), the government sector unions. They have done NOTHING else. It is not just what they did or didn't do, it is how they did it. Running around the Capitol in red T-shirts (why not blue?) and chanting "shame, shame, shame" or fleeing to Illinois and hiding like cowards, followed by endless recalls. All the while the Republicans moved forward and it worked. The claims of "devastation of the schools" or "the end of democracy" were all wrong. Why should the Democrats expect support?
As to the support they did receive, if it were not a Presidential election year, and a big one at that, the Democrats may have even done even worse than they did. Gerrymandering is a excuse for a failing party. Maybe the Dems. should take some of the advice, they have been so freely giving the GOP, and re-form themselves into something the electorate wants. The Democrats are the extremists in our state, while the Republicans may be the moderates.

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David Tatarowicz

6:49 pm on Monday, November 26, 2012

@Greg I am not the extreme Left, or even a Democrat............... as a matter of fact, I dislike and very much distrust the extremes of either side, which is why I have found myself commenting on the Republicans so much, as they have been shoving through Extreme Agendas --- which by the way, haven't worked !!!

You say the the Republicans moved forward and it worked ---- splain that please !!

Employment is NOT up in any meaningful way, the debt problem was solved with "one time Federal money" that should have gone to areas hit with foreclosures and vacant houses --- as it was intended --- Cronyism and Nepotism have become more important than resumes --- Walker co-chairs a committee that can't keep track of the loans outstanding --- schools have become a joke with the only guidance to spend less --- want to build on Wetlands, just get the Realtors to whisper in Walker's ear --- want to do away with meaningful safeguards against pollution on mining --- same ear different lobby --- destroy the budding wind farms --- What Else have the Republicans done ?

Oh yeah --- they gave away close to a Billion $ cause they lack any vision of progress in railroad travel -- and gave away another $35 million, cause they are pouting over Obamacare -- and of course, because they trust the Feds so much, they have totally Federalized our participation in the Health Exchanges ...

This brand of Republicans is waaaaaaay to Radical for me !

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Greg

7:51 pm on Monday, November 26, 2012

As I stated, no ability to look inward. Keep banging your fists and stomping your feet, it isn't going to change the truth.

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GearHead

8:21 pm on Monday, November 26, 2012

@David: saying no to federal candy with strings attached isn't "giving away" anything; it is prudent budgeting. Only a big government liberal like yourself could miss that. Stop being so greedy! And why aren't you thrilled over the federal exchange in WI? Isn't that right up your alley?

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Luke

11:28 pm on Monday, November 26, 2012

David said:

I am not the extreme Left, or even a Democrat.

............

And I am not posting on the Patch.

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David Tatarowicz

1:27 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

@Gearhead Please explain the Federal Candy with the strings attached in regards to the Health Exchanges.

I am confused by these Republicans who insist that everything be done at the local level -- and then pass on controlling the Health Exchange in Wisconsin in lieu of the Fed's taking control.

If you are inferring that it would cost WI to run it as an unfunded mandate --- it is paid for by the participating insurance companies.

Just as the County owns the airport but we Don't pay for it with tax money --- the airlines pay the fees ....... which is why David Clarke was actually correct when he said it costs nothing for the Sheriff to patrol the airport -- the airlines are footing the bill.

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Bert

3:56 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

David - unless you live inside the right wing information vacuum, you're probably not aware of the many conspiracies that people like gearhead believe in. You know - Obamacare wants states to expand Medicaid coverage, with the federal government paying 100% of that expansion for the first 3 years. After that, it PLUMMETS to 97%. (Never mind that the feds only fund about 55% of the current Medicaid program, this is obviously a trap!)

Your greater point about the impact of gerrymandering is quite valid, not only here in WI. In Ohio, a state the Obama won by 3 points, 75% of the US Representatives elected were Republicans. Again, adding up all the votes for US Reps, the Democrats got more votes, but nowhere near half the seats. This gerrymandering is seriously harming US policy, as these "safe" republicans are more worried about getting tea bagged in their primaries than they are about a moderate Democratic challenge in the general.

Greg

12:50 pm on Monday, November 26, 2012

Add insult to injury, AKA gerrymandering.
http://legis.wisconsin.gov/senate/sen04/news/Press/2012/pr2012-033.asp
Larson rewards ally, punishes African Americans.

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Terry

5:10 pm on Monday, November 26, 2012

Yes Dave, it has been all republicans in regards to obstructionism and non-compromise. After all, they were the party that fled the state to stop voting on legislation they didn't like. Was it not also the republicans who crammed through a sweeping national change in health care over the objections of their fellow legislators, without even knowing what was in it.

No wait, it wasn't...

Again, the hypocrisy of the left amuses me.

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David Tatarowicz

1:32 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

@Terry There are all kinds of technical manuvers that legislative bodies use --- such as the Quorum --- do you see any difference in the Democrats Legally (no crime committed) in denying a quorum as opposed to the Republicans using the Filibuster, as a minority needing only 41 votes, to deny consideration of legislation?

I would be in favor of eliminating filibusters, and even having rules considering when the lack of quorum is legal and not legal -- but for now, all is fair when following the rules as they exist.

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Dr. Saul Funkhouser

2:00 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Your outrage is selective to the parties you disagree with. If the shoe was on the other foot your silence would be deafening.

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Terry

12:32 pm on Thursday, November 29, 2012

To answer your question Dave, I don't like the Fillibuster (which both parties have used, not just Republicans). Proposals should be considered, debated, and voted on.

But this is not as direct a comparison as you would wish it in any event. The Filibuster is a administrative rule that is pretty much limited to the Federal congress. I don't believe there is an administrative rule at the state level that would allow that to be legal either. Could be wrong on that though, but if that was a legal option available to them, then why not use that instead of fleeing the state?

Bren

5:48 pm on Monday, November 26, 2012

I've long been of the opinion that redistricting should be a non- or bi-partisan process. It would avoid much acrimony.

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Greg

7:56 pm on Monday, November 26, 2012

What would this process be?

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The Donny Show

10:09 am on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

I have long thought that libtards only want change when they cant get their way.

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David Tatarowicz

2:51 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

@Bren I understand it is that way in a number of states --- but I would not hold my breath on it happening if either party has temporary control

Craig

8:24 pm on Monday, November 26, 2012

Another piss poor article written by a burn out.
David is in favor of legalization of weed, he is the poster child for why it should remain illegal. To piss and moan about Federal funds being used in a manner that doesn't help you sell something is your own fault. Put the bong down long enough and maybe you can sell a shed.

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David Tatarowicz

4:56 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

@Craig I know what I am not smoking --- but WOW --- what are you smoking --- try reading what you wrote when you are sober or not stoned --- and if you are neither that is even scarier

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Craig

5:02 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

No David, I don't smoke the shit. But you have admitted to doing so on other posts. That is why you can't sell any real estate, too busy with your bong and then your bag of chips.
I think you are just pissed you didn't get your corporate welfare Obamabucks.

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David Tatarowicz

5:40 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

@ Craig Do you understand the difference between present tense and past tense?

Do you understand the difference between advocating for something without actively engaging in it?

BTW -- I run two successful businesses and haven't been in real estate full time for years now since I had a knee injury that kept me on the sidelines for quite some time --- hard to show houses when using a walker!!

What do you do Craig? I would guess not much as you spend a lot of time on here, much more than I could ever spend while having a life.

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Craig

11:37 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Puff, puff, pass.
'sal good if it is medicinal huh

Kenneth London

9:04 pm on Monday, November 26, 2012

Of course redistricting was politically motivated (and expensive to taxpayers, too) and of course the redistricting solidified Republican power in state government.
All the more reason that redrawing legislative boundaries should NEVER be done by politicians - no matter what party is in power. (This time it was even done in extreme secrecy with lawmakers signing agreements to remain quiet) So much for "openness in government".

But Republicans would be ill advised to assume that this ploy to hang on to power means that their ideas and policies are more popular. The elections of 2012 show Wisconsin is made up of a very divided, moderate, and independent state-wide electorate. If the GOP pushes items like ending same-day voter registration, an obvious attempt to reduce Democratic voters - then voters will see what this so-called "reform" party is all about and Walker will have an uphill battle to win re-election. Because he sure is not going to win it based on his jobs creation promise.

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GearHead

9:21 pm on Monday, November 26, 2012

Ending same-day registration is reasonable reform that will pass and already is the law of the land in most states. Don't hear them complaining about reducing Dem voters. Your argument is a joke.

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Brian Dey

6:27 am on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Kenneth- Really? Governor Walker won twice in the same term pushing his policies through, and won by more the second time. They now have a bigger majority in the state senate and assembly. Seems like the people of Wisconsin are not quite as split as you think.

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Bert

4:09 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Brian - in the recall election, the notion of recalling a governor lost more than Walker won. This point was backed up by the fact that Obama won the state by a large margin, and the very liberal Senate candidate beat Walker's man. Walker (and Johnson) won in an off-year election during a strong pro-republican wave. Johnson's re-election will be in a Presidential election year - he'll have a hard time holding that seat if he sticks to his tea party policies. Walker will pull a Romney and not run again, trying to protect his national chances as it becomes clear he won't win a 2nd term.

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Bert

4:14 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Gearhead - when voter suppression is the only way for your party to maintain power, you are no longer allowed to refer to your belief in "freedom" or "democracy". If you DO believe in "freedom" and "democracy", then you would commit yourself to the goal of 100% citizen participation.

Perhaps you believe - as Alberta Darling does - that Obama won Wisconsin due to voter fraud. Clearly, a scheme that resulted in over 200,000 fraudulent votes would be big enough for even the colossally incompetent Walker administration to sniff out! (Your argument is a joke, albeit a sick, anti-democracy kind of joke)

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David Tatarowicz

5:01 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

@Kenneth Very good points --- may I add that when Walker keeps making policy announcements on the other side of the country as he panders for money and influence among the radical conservatives, he will not be gaining any votes and will open the eyes of many who were fooled the first two times in electing him

Steve ®

10:25 pm on Monday, November 26, 2012

Nom nom nom love me some propaganda

Do you guys ever stop crying? Obama is your king everything should be right in the world.

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Richard Head

8:05 am on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Hear! Hear!

Wed. June 6 2012:

" Democrat Declares Victory in Wisconsin Senate Race That Could Flip Majority Control. In the 21st senate district in southeastern Wisconsin, Democrat John Lehman declared victory late Tuesday night in the recall election of Republican state Sen. Van Wanggard. With all precincts reporting, Lehman led Wanggard by just 779 votes."

The race matters because a Lehman win would hand Democrats control of the state senate for the first time since Gov. Scott Walker took office in January 2011. It would also mean Democrats and labor unions avoided a clean sweep in Tuesday's six recall elections in Wisconsin.

"Tonight, the citizens of Racine County voted for checks and balances in our state legislature," Lehman said in a statement. "I look forward to working with my colleagues in the state senate."

http://www.motherjones.com/mojo/2012/06/john-lehman-van-wanggard-wisconsin-recall-senate

John Lehman was only elected through the efforts of the Democratic controlled voting districts in the City of Racine, where tampered ballot bags were discovered. Um, but no other irregularities, except those tampered bags were found, and uh, they didn't cheat - OR SO WE WERE TOLD.

It doesn't matter who votes, it only matters who counts the votes.
--Joseph Stalin

Richard Head

8:19 am on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Putting 1 and 1 together = David and Lyle are both Shorewood Residents, IF I remember correctly.

"RULE 1: “Power is not only what you have, but what the enemy thinks you have.” Power is derived from 2 main sources – money and people. “Have-Nots” must build power from flesh and blood."

"RULE 9: “The threat is usually more terrifying than the thing itself.” Imagination and ego can dream up many more consequences than any activist."

Lyle threatens: "If we are to avoid the public outcry and civil disturbances of the past, I and other moderates implore the political right to approach this next legislative session with caution and resist the temptation of extremism."

David describes redistricting as : "Gerrymandering"

"RULE 8: “Keep the pressure on. Never let up.” Keep trying new things to keep the opposition off balance. As the opposition masters one approach, hit them from the flank with something new."

The first shot across the bow was from Lyle, followed up by David. Geez- they are almost neighbors - do you think they are members of the same cell?

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David Tatarowicz

5:09 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

@Richard --- Damn, I have to put that on my reading list, right after I finish Sun Tzu's Art of War ............

@Lyl --- OMG they figured out we both live in Shorewood !!! BTW have I ever met you, at least not that I can recall --- maybe we can meet with Richard somewhere for a drink and he can learn us up on all that conspiracy stuff -- of course only if he buys LOL

Richard Head

10:02 am on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

The Russian Perspective:

"Recently, Obama has been re-elected for a 2nd term by an illiterate society and he is ready to continue his lies of less taxes while he raises them. He gives speeches of peace and love in the world while he promotes wars as he did in Egypt, Libya and Syria. He plans his next war is with Iran as he fires or demotes his generals who get in the way.

Putin said regarding the military,

"...instead of solving the problem, militarization pushes it to a deeper level. It draws away from the economy immense financial and material resources, which could have been used much more efficiently elsewhere."

Well, any normal individual understands that as true but liberalism is a psychosis . O'bomber even keeps the war going along the Mexican border with projects like "fast and furious" and there is still no sign of ending it. He is a Communist without question promoting the Communist Manifesto without calling it so. How shrewd he is in America. His cult of personality mesmerizes those who cannot go beyond their ignorance. They will continue to follow him like those fools who still praise Lenin and Stalin in Russia. Obama's fools and Stalin's fools share the same drink of illusion."

http://english.pravda.ru/opinion/columnists/19-11-2012/122849-obama_soviet_mistake-0/

I agree with Vladamir Putin!

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Randy1949

10:22 am on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

So you're agreeing with the Russians now? That's a first.

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The Anti-Alinsky

4:19 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

The point, Randy, is even Vladamir Putin realizes how Socialist B.O. is!

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David Tatarowicz

5:21 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

@Richard Me thinks you are imbibing a bit too much in the Kook Aide !!

The Donny Show

10:12 am on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Compromise? Obstructionism? What is running away like a three-year old called? Progress?

Come on Dave. You are better than this.

As the grand supreme libtard said, "ELECTIONS HAVE CONSEQUENCES".

As Bo Ryan said, "Deal with it!"

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David Tatarowicz

5:23 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

@ TDS AS I responded to Terry above --- There are all kinds of technical manuvers that legislative bodies use --- such as the Quorum --- do you see any difference in the Democrats Legally (no crime committed) in denying a quorum as opposed to the Republicans using the Filibuster, as a minority needing only 41 votes, to deny consideration of legislation?

I would be in favor of eliminating filibusters, and even having rules considering when the lack of quorum is legal and not legal -- but for now, all is fair when following the rules as they exist.

Random Blog Commenter

11:51 am on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Mr. Tatorowicz,

The courts have long ruled that there is nothing wrong with politicians engaging in politics.

The state GOP has presented an opportunity to state Democrats. There are alot of districts that are nominally GOP and can be won by state Dems with a candidate and message that fits that district and if people develop a distrust of the Republican who currently holds that seat. It is up to state Democrats to find those candidates and message and build from the ground up.

It is quite possible to do because supposedly locked-in majorities tend to make that party complacent after a few years. It also exposes internal divisions.

However, state Democrats will not find that message, nor those candidates, if the likes of Sen. Chris Larson becomes the ideological lead of the party. There is a reason why state GOP senators openly applauded when he was selected as senate minority leader. He will keep his own party divided while he becomes a party power broker rather than a leader. Sen. Taylor should vote with the GOP on an issue here and there just to mess with Larson's head.

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The Donny Show

12:55 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Senator Taylor has not had an original thought since 1987. She does what she is told and says what she is told to say. No chance she can do such.

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David Tatarowicz

5:29 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

@ Random BC I have not stated that the Republicans did anything wrong or illegal when they Gerrymandered --- as you say, nothing wrong with politicians engaging in politics.

I simply noted the consequences of what that means for the future, and that the most viable ways of restraining the Radical Right is working on elections that are state wide.

Having said that --- in the future I would love to see "non-political" districts drawn, but it will be another 10 years before that will be an issue again, and unless our politicians, on both sides, would miraculously agree to a non-political process, whichever side has the advantage will probably make use of it

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morninmist

3:10 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

ha ha

ScooterChrist Walker @ScooterChrist 2m
"Gov. #Walker is hopeful #JohnDoe probe will end soon, maybe this week" Without an indictment!!! po.st/VSuNew #wiunion

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Bert

4:18 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

Walker's greatest accomplishment to date - somehow avoiding indictment for past crimes!

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Ima Hippee

7:21 pm on Thursday, November 29, 2012

Morninmist - Hilary went to Benghazi and all I got was a bloody t-shirt.

The Anti-Alinsky

4:18 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

David, check out the image I just uploaded. That is what a Gerrymandered district looks like.

Wisconsin's new assembly districts stood up to a court challenge with one exception. The court took two Milwaukee districts that likely would have both gone to Hispanic candidates, and made one more predominately Hispanic. This guaranteed one Hispanic victory, but reduced the odds in the other.

Look at New York or Illinois if you really want to see what Gerrymandering looks like!

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David Tatarowicz

5:34 pm on Tuesday, November 27, 2012

@ A-A Of course the courts did not change any of the ones that were drawn for political reasons, As Random Blog C noted above, there is nothing illegal about political gerrymandering --- maybe it should be, but at the present it isn't.

Gerrymandering which impacts protected classes however are illegal and that is why the courts acted as they did -- only as pertained to protected classes.

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The Anti-Alinsky

6:52 pm on Thursday, November 29, 2012

Sorry David, but there are certain federal guidelines that have to be followed, primarily concerning race.

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